By Perri Nemiroff
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The Super Bowl of cinema is upon us. Welcome to Collider's FYC hub, your best resource for Oscars 2025 predictions. Here, Senior Producer Perri Nemiroff keeps you up to date on the leading contenders based on her knowledge of industry trends and whispers, and her own personal thoughts and instincts. Remember to come back often for updates! The odds are always changing.
Update: November 28, 2024
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Last year, we had our Oscar frontrunner in July. Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer hit theaters, immediately secured the top spot in many Academy Award categories, and then went on to win seven of them. This year, however, we've got quite a few heavy hitters and, thus far, no single one has emerged as a runaway favorite.
2025 awards season chatter began at the Cannes Film Festival where Anora and Emilia Pérez emerged as early favorites. While both have managed to maintain that momentum, later festivals added more to the mix, most notably, Conclave and The Brutalist, both of which secured high honors at the Venice International Film Festival. We're also getting some late-season entries that are shaping up to be major players this season, like September 5 directed by Tim Fehlbaum and A Completed Unknown from James Mangold. However, all could see their chances rocked by a less likely contender. It's Jon M. Chu's adaptation of the hit musical, Wicked.
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As a longtime fan of the musical, my fingers were crossed mighty tight for a worthy big screen adaptation. While hopes were high we'd get a good Wicked movie, given the show is so iconic and the film is so ambitious, it felt like a reach to hold out hope for Oscar nominations. Less than a week into the film's release, not only is Wicked guaranteed to become an Academy Award nominee, it's likely going to be a multi-category nominee, including Best Picture, where it's currently my frontrunner to win.
BEST PICTURE
Current Frontrunner: Wicked
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RANK | FILM | STUDIO | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Wicked | Universal | ⬆ |
2 | Anora | Neon | |
3 | Conclave | Focus Features | |
4 | Emilia Perez | Netflix | ⬇ |
5 | September 5 | Paramount Pictures | ⬆ |
6 | The Brutalist | A24 | ⬇ |
7 | Dune: Part Two | Warner Bros. | |
8 | Sing Sing | A24 | |
9 | A Real Pain | Searchlight Pictures | ⬆ |
10 | The Substance | Mubi |
Also in Contention: I'm Still Here, Maria, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown
BEST DIRECTOR
Current Frontrunner: Sean Baker
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RANK | FILM | DIRECTOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Anora | Sean Baker | ⬆ |
2 | Wicked | John M. Chu | ⬆ |
3 | Conclave | Edward Berger | ⬆ |
4 | The Brutalist | Brady Corbet | ⬇ |
5 | Emilia Pérez | Jacques Audiard | ⬇ |
Also in Contention: Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Two, Walter Salles for I'm Still Here, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance
BEST ACTRESS
Current Frontrunner: Mikey Madison
RANK | FILM | ACTRESS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Anora | Mikey Madison | |
2 | Emilia Pérez | Karla Sofía Gascón | |
3 | Wicked | Cynthia Erivo | ⬆ |
4 | Babygirl | Nicole Kidman | ⬆ |
5 | Demi Moore | The Substance | ⬆ |
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Also in Contention: Angeline Jolie for Maria, Fernanda Torres for I'm Still Here
BEST ACTOR
Current Frontrunner: Ralph Fiennes
RANK | FILM | ACTOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Conclave | Ralph Fiennes | ⬆ |
2 | Sing Sing | Colman Domingo | ⬆ |
3 | The Brutalist | Adrien Brody | ⬇ |
4 | A Real Pain | Jesse Eisenberg | ⬆ |
5 | A Complete Unknown | Timothée Chalamet | ⬆ |
Also in Contention: Daniel Craig for Queer, Sebastian Stan for A Different Man, John David Washington for The Piano Lesson
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Current Frontrunner: Zoe Saldaña
RANK | FILM | ACTRESS | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | Emilia Pérez | Zoe Saldaña | |
2 | Wicked | Ariana Grande | ⬆ |
3 | Conclave | Isabella Rossellini | |
4 | Emilia Pérez | Selena Gomez | |
5 | The Piano Lesson | Danielle Deadwyler | ⬆ |
Also in Contention: Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, Joan Chen for Dìdi, Leonie Benesch for September 5
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Current Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin
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RANK | FILM | ACTOR | CHANGE |
|---|---|---|---|
1 | A Real Pain | Kieran Culkin | ⬆ |
2 | The Brutalist | Guy Pearce | |
3 | Conclave | Stanley Tucci | |
4 | Sing Sing | Clarence Maclin | |
5 | Anora | Yura Borisov |
Also in Contention: Denzel Washington for Gladiator II, Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, Peter Sarsgaard for September 5, John Magaro for September 5, Mark Eydelshteyn for Anora
